Petr?leo y crecimiento econ?mico: ? Adicci?n a los shocks?. El caso ecuatoriano (1972-2014)

Description: This paper, using a VAR model and a new re-constructed dataset in a quarterly frequency of GDP and its component for the period 1965-2014, evaluates the impact of positive oil price shocks on the macroeconomy, with an emphasis on growth. The responses of GDP, government consumption and imports are positive and statistically signi?cant, whereas the in?ation response is negative, possibly distorted by subsidies policies, yet mainly not signi?cant. The results indicate that, since 1990, the impact of positive shocks on growth has been larger, despite the fact the growth rates were higher during the 1970s. Indeed, the contribution of positive shocks to the variations in GDP is higher since 1990s. Hence, economic growth seems more dependent on oil prices, revealing a lack of signi?cant changes within the economic structure since the 1970s. The condition of the economy at the moment of the shock, therefore, is essential. Oil price surges are important, but policies and the macroeconomic performance before the shock determine the magnitude of the e?ect.

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